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Tiger, where art thou?

It seems as if not a lot is going right with Tiger Woods, except for maybe some stray shots (bazinga.). His billion dollar Dubai golf course is collecting sand, literally, as it is said to be “returning to sand” after Tiger plays in the Omega Dubai Desert Classic next week. He is no longer is the most powerful athlete in the world, according to Businessweek.com. That honor has fallen to Peyton Manning. He hasn’t won a golf tournament in over 13 months, his marriage is over and he’s being called out by a rookie for phoning in his final round at Torrey Pines, a course he has consistently dominated.

All these things, coupled with the fact that Tiger has been working tirelessly on his game with Sean Foley, yet has not seen the fruits of his labor, brings up some questions about what we really should expect from Tiger Woods at age 35.

Will he ever get back to the dominating force he once was?

I think it is safe to say that, no, Tiger will never regain the pure intimidation and domination he enjoyed in the early-to-mid 2000s. No more 12 or 15 or eight stroke (Masters ’97, US Open ’00, British ’00) major championship blow outs. I don’t even see a five shot major victory like ’05 at St. Andrews.

There are a couple reasons for this. First of all, the competition is better. The big knock earlier in his career when comparing Woods with Jack Nicklaus was that Nicklaus had far better competition. People would argue for Woods’ case using names like Mickelson, Singh and Goosen, but would be trumped by Watson, Palmer, Trevino, Player, Miller, Seve and so on.

Now, names like McDowell, Kaymer, Westwood, McIlroy, Dustin Johnson  are there week in and week out. Plus, the depth of the worldwide game is so much deeper than it was 10 years ago when Tiger was running through fields. Many of the contenders out there today were still in elementary school. Tiger was their role model. Now, it seems, he’s just another guy they have to beat.

So if Tiger will never get back to being the dominant force he was, will he still get back to some semblance of his previous self?

I think this question can be confidently answered in the affirmative. Is he struggling? No doubt, but he’s getting back to the basics that made him so good. With Foley, Tiger is attempting to relearn the swing of his youth. A more Bubba Watson-esque swing, where mechanics and thought are not as involved as making an athletic move through the ball. The problem with this transition is the perfectionist in Woods. When he was younger, he was loose and lanky, playing golf like no one ever had before. And even though he was winning, people were telling him that his swing would not hold up when Father Time came calling. So he worked with Butch Harmon and overhauled his swing, bringing more mechanics and swing thoughts into the equation. Terms like “plane” and “getting stuck” and “torque” were clouding the thought process that used to be “how do I get the ball in the hole in the least amount of strokes?”

Then, when winning sputtered just a little with Harmon, he moved onto Hank Haney to redo his swing again, bringing even more thoughts into the process. Through both coaches, the winning was still there, just not the same fashion in which it came earlier in his career. Sure, there were flashes of brilliance when he would blitz the field, but never anything like what he had. Tiger the perfectionist didn’t want occasional flashes, though (insert Tiger joke), he wanted consistent brillance.

So he moved on from Haney amid the biggest downward spiral of his life and onto Sean Foley, the “it” guy on Tour to help him regain some sort of winning form. And yet again, more swing thoughts. Foley says Tiger is trying to get back to that loose, free-flowing athletic swing of his youth, but his mind is so overloaded with thoughts from Harmon and Haney that it’s going to take a while to unlearn everything.

Which brings us to this past weekend. Usually when Tiger has an extended period of time off to work on his game, he inevitably comes out and plays well. That was not the case this week. After so-so rounds of 69-69 on Thursday and Friday, Woods finished 74-75 to fall to T44 at a course he’s won at the last five times he’s played.

Amid accusations of basically giving up on the final round, Woods simply said he has a lot of stuff to work on.

Now, the media is beginning to question him.

Geoff Shackelford put together a great little article linking to all the “stick-a-fork-in Tiger clippings.”

The most well-thought out IMO is Joe Posnanski, which is hardly a shock. Poz always brings a thoughtful stance to his mile-long blog posts. That’s not to say that Sally Jenkins, arguably the best sports writer in the nation right now, mailed it in, to use a Tiger Term, I just like Posnanski’s better. Elling and Huggan is more of a dialouge, so thoughtfulness is not as necessary as sitting down to pound out a story.

Basically, what all these articles are asking is…

Is Tiger Woods done for and how do we know or not?

Posnanski talks about great athletes of previous generations who the public has believed in far after their best days were behind them. Babe Ruth was a shell of his younger self when he played his last game at Yankee Stadium. Michael Jordan came back with the Wizards and no one really expected him to be the 26-year-old guy flying through the lane. People, great athletes included, have the tendency to grow old and as they get older their abilities depreciate. Emmitt Smith was no longer the Emmitt Smith in Arizona that we remembered from Dallas.

Posnanski’s line is, “and when you get old, you don’t get young again. It’s the unbreakable rule.”

Everybody understands it. No one is immune to old age. You can’t get young again.

Yet, with Tiger Woods, we seem to forget that. Maybe it’s his transcendent talent, or the belief that golfers can hold out longer than other athletes, but you’re hard pressed to find someone to say that Tiger Woods is finished and actually believe what their saying.

But people do think that Tiger can (or will). Even I think that. As I write these words, a part of me is shouting “Come on, you’re not REALLY writing off Tiger Woods.”

The fact of the matter is Tiger has a different kind of quality about him. You can’t quite put your finger on it, but you know its there. You can’t write off Tiger Woods. He’s only better when he’s doubted.

He’s too mentally strong, they say. He’s too competitive, they say. He lives to break the records and he won’t stop until he does it, they say.

But, what should we take this weekend as, then?

Brendan Steele, a 26-year-old PGA Tour rookie, with three starts to his name, is basically calling Tiger out on his lack of focus and will. Five years ago, that would have been unheard of.  ”Who does this kid think he is?” While there still is some of that, a more disturbing and popular trend appearing is, “what if this kid is right? Maybe he is mailing it in.”

Finally, we come to the main point of the post…

What should we expect from Tiger Woods?

We should expect one of the greatest athletes in the history of the world to go out as such. Will he win again? Yes, there is little doubt in that. Majors? Still, yes.

The underlying question with Woods always comes down to what he, himself concerns himself with the most, which is the major championships and Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18. Sitting on 14 for the past two years, he needs four to tie and five to pass Jack. Five major championships. Five for Tiger, it seems is like two for anyone else: doable, but not guaranteed.

But, when you think about it, that’s a career. Not just any career, five majors is a Hall of Fame career.

Can we expect him to pass Jack’s record? Honestly, I do not know.

I believe a lot depends on the 2011 season. If he can get back to some semblance of winning and normalcy, which he claims he has, there’s a shot. 35 is old for the NBA or MLB, moreso for the NFL, but the PGA can handle some age, as long as people adjust accordingly.

To say for sure if Tiger will break Jack’s record is still up in the air, but I’ll enjoy seeing him try.